The Igbo have a proverb: “A na-amata onye ga-agba oso tupu mmiri amalite izo” meaning “A wise person prepares to run before the rain begins to fall.” The wisdom embedded in this ancient saying is that foresight is often more valuable than reaction. Those who wait until the storm is already upon them may discover that it is too late to avoid its consequences. Today, Nigeria faces a storm unlike any in its history. It is not a storm of politics, ideology, or military invasion. It is a storm driven by climate stress, and its consequences are increasingly being felt in our economy, our communities, and our national security.
For many years, climate change was treated as an environmental concern, a matter for scientists, conservationists, and international conferences. Security, on the other hand, was regarded as the responsibility of soldiers, police officers, intelligence agencies, and political leaders. Those distinctions are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. Across Nigeria, evidence is mounting that climate pressures are amplifying migration, worsening poverty, intensifying competition for resources, and increasing the likelihood of conflict. Climate change may not directly cause violence, but it is increasingly acting as a catalyst that magnifies existing tensions and vulnerabilities.
When Nigerians discuss insecurity, the conversation naturally turns to Boko Haram insurgency in the North East, banditry in the North West, kidnapping along major highways, communal violence in the Middle Belt, and farmer-herder conflicts across several states. These threats dominate headlines and shape public debate. Yet beneath many of these visible crises lie deeper structural pressures that receive far less attention. Climate stress is one of them. Security experts around the world increasingly describe climate change as a “threat multiplier” because it worsens existing social, economic, and political challenges. Where poverty already exists, climate change deepens it. Where competition over resources already exists, climate change intensifies it. Where governance is weak, climate change exposes those weaknesses even further.
The signs are evident across the country. Northern Nigeria continues to experience rising temperatures, declining rainfall in some regions, advancing desertification, and increasing land degradation. States such as Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Zamfara have witnessed the steady encroachment of desert conditions into once productive agricultural lands. In some communities, sand dunes have swallowed farmland and even threatened settlements. Farmers who once harvested sufficient crops to support their families increasingly face shorter growing seasons, reduced yields, and greater uncertainty about when the rains will arrive.
The Lake Chad Basin offers perhaps the most striking example of the relationship between environmental change and human insecurity. In the 1960s, Lake Chad covered approximately 25,000 square kilometres. Today, depending on seasonal variations, it occupies only a fraction of that size. The shrinking lake has affected millions of people across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon who depend on fishing, farming, and livestock production. Communities that once earned a living from fishing have seen catches decline dramatically. Young men who can no longer sustain themselves through traditional livelihoods become vulnerable to recruitment by criminal groups and insurgent movements. While climate change alone did not create the Boko Haram insurgency, environmental degradation has undoubtedly contributed to the economic despair that extremists exploit.
Yet while drought and desertification threaten parts of northern Nigeria, other regions face the opposite challenge. Flooding has emerged as one of the country’s most destructive environmental hazards. The floods of 2022 affected 33 states and displaced more than 1.4 million people. Hundreds lost their lives. Thousands of homes were destroyed. Vast areas of farmland were submerged. In Kogi State, entire communities were cut off as roads disappeared under water. In Anambra State, residents abandoned homes and sought refuge in schools and temporary shelters. In Bayelsa State, floodwaters overwhelmed communities that were already vulnerable because of their low-lying geography. Farmers who had invested their savings in crops watched helplessly as entire harvests disappeared beneath rising waters.
The tragic flooding in Mokwa, Niger State, in 2025 offered another painful reminder of how vulnerable many Nigerian communities remain. Homes were swept away, families displaced, and livelihoods destroyed. Such events are often reported as isolated disasters, but they form part of a broader pattern. Climate scientists have repeatedly warned that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more severe.
Migration has always been part of human adaptation. Throughout history, people have moved in response to changing environmental conditions, economic opportunities, and social circumstances. The problem is not migration itself. The problem arises when migration occurs on a scale that overwhelms local resources and institutions. As climate pressures increase, more Nigerians are being pushed to seek opportunities elsewhere. Young people leave villages in search of work in cities such as Kano, Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, and Onitsha. Herders move southward in search of pasture and water. Farming communities relocate when repeated flooding makes cultivation impossible. The receiving communities must then cope with increased pressure on land, housing, schools, healthcare facilities, and employment opportunities.
Nowhere is this dynamic more visible than in the recurring conflicts between farming and pastoral communities. For generations, various communities across Nigeria developed systems for sharing access to land and water resources. Traditional authorities often played important roles in managing disputes and maintaining peaceful coexistence. However, rapid population growth, environmental degradation, urban expansion, and changing land-use patterns have placed these arrangements under increasing strain. As grazing routes become less reliable and agricultural land becomes more valuable, competition intensifies.
The violent conflicts that have affected Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kaduna, Taraba, and parts of Niger State illustrate this challenge. In many of these areas, disputes that may begin over damaged crops, blocked grazing routes, or access to water can quickly escalate into deadly confrontations. Climate stress is not the sole cause. Ethnic tensions, criminality, political manipulation, and the proliferation of firearms all contribute to the problem. Nevertheless, environmental pressures have undoubtedly made existing disputes more difficult to manage.
The challenge facing Nigeria is likely to become more pronounced in the coming decades. The country’s population is projected to exceed 400 million before the end of this century. More people will require more food, more water, more housing, and more economic opportunities. At the same time, climate change is expected to place additional pressure on already stressed natural resources. This creates a dangerous situation in which rising demand collides with increasing environmental constraints. Unless proactive measures are taken, the resulting tensions could undermine both economic development and national stability.
Fortunately, climate-related security risks are not inevitable. They can be mitigated through effective planning, investment, and governance. One of the most important tools available to Nigeria is the development of robust early warning systems. Meteorological agencies already generate weather forecasts, but these forecasts often fail to reach the farmers, fishermen, and pastoralists who need them most. A farmer in Kebbi should know months in advance if rainfall is expected to be significantly below normal. Communities along the Niger and Benue rivers should receive timely flood warnings that allow residents to relocate before disaster strikes. Technology now makes such systems possible, but implementation remains inadequate.
Alongside improved forecasting, Nigeria must strengthen local mediation and conflict-resolution structures. Traditional rulers, district heads, emirs, obas, chiefs, village heads, religious leaders, and community organisations often possess the trust and legitimacy necessary to resolve disputes before they escalate into violence. The Emir of Kano, the Sultan of Sokoto, the Tor Tiv, and numerous traditional institutions across the country continue to play important roles in maintaining social cohesion. Strengthening these structures may prevent conflicts that would otherwise require costly military intervention.
Equally important are reforms to water and land governance. Many resource-related disputes arise because of uncertainty surrounding ownership, access rights, and resource allocation. Nigeria possesses vast water resources, yet many farming communities still rely entirely on seasonal rainfall. Expanding irrigation projects in states such as Kano, Jigawa, Kebbi, and Niger could significantly reduce vulnerability to drought. Likewise, clearer land administration systems would reduce disputes over ownership and access rights. Resource competition becomes far less dangerous when the rules governing access are transparent and fairly enforced.
Agriculture must also be at the centre of Nigeria’s climate adaptation strategy. Millions of Nigerians depend directly on farming and livestock production for their livelihoods. Climate change threatens both sectors. Investments in drought-resistant crops, improved seed varieties, irrigation systems, soil conservation, climate-smart farming techniques, agricultural extension services, and crop insurance programmes can help farmers adapt to changing conditions. Countries such as Israel have demonstrated how efficient water management can sustain agricultural production even under difficult environmental conditions. Nigeria has the resources and expertise to implement similar innovations if the political will exists.
Urban planning deserves similar attention. Climate-induced migration is contributing to the rapid growth of many Nigerian cities. Lagos already faces severe flooding challenges because of its coastal location and population density. Port Harcourt struggles with flooding and environmental degradation. Kano, Abuja, and Ibadan continue to expand rapidly as migrants seek economic opportunities. Without proper planning, these cities may struggle to provide housing, infrastructure, sanitation, healthcare, education, and employment opportunities for expanding populations. Climate-resilient cities require improved drainage systems, flood protection infrastructure, affordable housing initiatives, and reliable public services.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that Nigeria must fundamentally rethink how it understands security. The threats of the twenty-first century extend beyond conventional military concerns. They include environmental shocks, resource scarcity, food insecurity, displacement, and climate-related disruptions capable of destabilising entire regions. Every drought that destroys livelihoods in Sokoto, every flood that displaces families in Bayelsa, every farmer-herder conflict in Benue, and every community abandoned because environmental conditions have become unbearable carries implications for national security.
Nigeria cannot arrest its way out of desertification. It cannot deploy soldiers against rising temperatures. It cannot defeat flooding through military force. The country’s long-term security will depend not only on the strength of its armed forces but also on the resilience of its communities, the sustainability of its agricultural systems, the effectiveness of its institutions, and its ability to adapt to a changing climate.
The old Igbo proverb reminds us that wisdom lies in preparing before the rain begins to fall. The rain has already started. Across the North, the desert continues its slow advance. Across the South, floodwaters continue to rise. Across the Middle Belt, competition for land and water grows more intense. The question before Nigeria is whether we will continue treating climate change as somebody else’s problem, or whether we will recognise it for what it has become: one of the defining security challenges of our time. The future stability, prosperity, and unity of the nation may depend on the answer.
Garbs
June 25, 2026