As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks three years in office, Nigeria finds itself debating two competing realities.
The government argues that the reforms are working. Fuel subsidies have been removed. The foreign exchange system has been liberalized. Government revenues have increased significantly. The stock market has surged. International rating agencies have improved Nigeria’s outlook. Infrastructure projects are underway across the country. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) is helping students who previously could not afford higher education. By conventional economic measures, the administration argues that the foundations of long-term growth are being rebuilt.
Critics counter that statistics do not buy food. Ratings agencies do not pay transport fares. Foreign investor confidence does not automatically put meals on the table. They argue that despite improvements in some macroeconomic indicators, millions of Nigerians continue to struggle with rising living costs, insecurity, unemployment, and poverty.
This tension between macroeconomic progress and lived experience lies at the heart of the Tinubu presidency.
To evaluate the administration fairly, it may be useful to borrow a familiar tool from the classroom: the report card.
President Tinubu’s Three-Year Report Card
Criterion Assessment Grade
Macroeconomic Reform:
Bold reforms including fuel subsidy removal, exchange-rate liberalization, increased government revenues, improved investor confidence, and stronger international credit ratings. *B*
Cost of Living:
Food inflation, transportation costs, and declining purchasing power continue to place enormous pressure on households. *D*
Poverty and Welfare:
Economic gains have not yet translated into meaningful improvements in the living conditions of most Nigerians. *D*
Security:
Persistent challenges from kidnapping, banditry, terrorism, and communal violence continue to threaten lives and livelihoods. *D*
Infrastructure Development:
Visible investments in roads, railways, and other public works, although implementation remains uneven and impact limited.
*C+*
Education and Social:
Intervention NELFUND represents a positive intervention with identifiable beneficiaries, though its national impact remains limited. *C+*
Governance and Accountability:
Increased revenues have not yet produced proportional improvements in public services and citizen welfare. *C-*
Democratic Performance and Public Confidence:
Growing disconnect between official optimism and public perception of hardship. *D+*
*Overall Grade: C-*
What does a C- mean?
A C- is not a failing grade. It signifies that the minimum standard has been met. The student has demonstrated enough competence to avoid repeating the class. However, it is also far from a performance worthy of celebration. It signals inconsistency, significant weaknesses, and substantial room for improvement.
That is perhaps the fairest assessment of the Tinubu administration after three years.
The administration deserves credit for confronting difficult economic distortions that previous governments avoided. Few leaders were willing to remove fuel subsidies or liberalize the foreign exchange market because of the political risks involved. Tinubu took those risks.
However, governments are not elected merely to improve fiscal indicators. They are elected to improve the lives of citizens. The strongest criticism of the administration is not that reforms were unnecessary. Most serious analysts agree that reforms were needed. The criticism is that the benefits of those reforms remain largely invisible to ordinary Nigerians.
A growing economy means little to a family that can no longer afford basic food items. Rising government revenues mean little to communities living under the constant threat of kidnapping. Improved credit ratings mean little to young graduates who cannot find jobs.
Democracy ultimately judges governments not by what rating agencies think, but by what citizens experience.
This is why the administration’s greatest challenge is no longer introducing reforms. The challenge is translating reforms into relief.
Three years into a four-year mandate, many Nigerians are still waiting for the promised dividends. The government asks for patience. Citizens ask how much longer they must wait.
The political implication is straightforward. If this were a school, President Tinubu would likely be promoted to the next class. A C- is a passing grade.
But elections are not classrooms. Voters are not teachers. They are the final examiners.
When Nigerians go to the polls in 2027, they will not be grading intentions. They will be grading outcomes. They will ask whether their families are safer, whether their incomes stretch further, whether food is more affordable, whether jobs are available, and whether the sacrifices demanded of them have produced tangible benefits.
The Tinubu administration’s report card after three years suggests a government that has avoided failure but has not yet earned distinction. It has undertaken significant reforms but has yet to convert those reforms into widespread improvements in everyday life.
In educational terms, the administration has passed. Whether it deserves promotion, however, remains a question that only the Nigerian people can answer.
Garbs
May 30, 3026